By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina, as expected, has fallen in bracket projections after losing both games in the Bay Area last weekend.
The consensus of the 84 NCAA tournament projections on Bracket Matrix made through Tuesday has the Tar Heels as the lowest No. 6 seed.
With Selection Sunday less than two months away (March 15), Carolina’s NET ranking of 30 (down one after Tuesday’s game) translates as a high No. 8 seed. But that’s only one of the metrics that the NCAA tournament uses to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.
NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
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Before UNC (14–4, 2–3 ACC) lost three of their last four games, there was hope that the Tar Heels might play their first- and second-round games in Greenville, S.C., but it’s looking like they’ll play much farther away from Chapel Hill.
Here are six projections that were released on Tuesday:
— ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who had Carolina as a No. 4 seed earlier this month, has UNC heading to Oklahoma City for first- and second-round games in the Midwest Regional as a No. 7 seed, facing the winner of the First Four game between USC (13–4; NET ranking of 48) and New Mexico (13–4; 40).
— The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode projects UNC as a No. 6 seed in the South Regional, facing the winner of the First Four game between San Diego State (12–4; 47) and Santa Clara (15–5; 45) in Portland, Ore.
— At CBS Sports, David Cobb and Jacob Fetner have Carolina as a No. 8 seed in the West Regional.
— At Blogging the Bracket, Chris Dobbertean has UNC as a No. 7 seed in the East Regional, playing in St. Louis against the winner of the First Four game between Seton Hall (14–5; 44) and New Mexico
— On NCAA.com, Andy Katz projects the Tar Heels as a No. 6 seed in the South Regional and the 24th overall seed.
— Kerry Miller at The Bleacher Report sees UNC as a No. 7 seed in the West Regional, facing No. 10 Texas A&M (14–4; 44) in Portland, Ore.
UNC has 11 regular-season games (and the ACC tournament) ahead with a chance to turn its NCAA résumé around after doing significant damage in the last two weeks.
The Tar Heels have eight chances to improve a 3–4 Quad 1 record, but five will be on the road, and they will be heavy underdogs in the next two:
— Saturday at No. 14 Virginia (16–2, 5–1; 13)
— Feb. 7 vs. No. 5 Duke (17–1, 6–0; 2)
Additional Quad 1 opportunities are:
— Feb. 10 at Miami (15–4, 4–2; 35)
— Feb. 17 at N.C. State (13–6, 4–2; 28)
— Feb. 21 at Syracuse (12–6, 3–2; 74)
— Feb. 23 vs. No. 23 Louisville (13–5, 3–3; 15)
— March 3 vs. No. 18 Clemson (16–4, 6–1; 27)
— March 7 at Duke
UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Duke | 17–1 | 29–2 | 1 | 2 |
| No. 10 Virginia | 15–3 | 27–4 | 13 | 11 |
| Miami | 13–5 | 24–7 | 32 | 28 |
| No. 19 North Carolina | 12–6 | 24–7 | 23 | 19 |
| Clemson | 12–6 | 22–9 | 36 | 33 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 11–7 | 22–9 | 14 | 25 |
| N.C. State | 10–8 | 19–12 | 35 | 45 |
| Florida State | 10–8 | 17–14 | 69 | 74 |
| California | 9–9 | 21–10 | 65 | 49 |
| Stanford | 9–9 | 20–11 | 59 | 51 |
| SMU | 8–10 | 19–12 | 39 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 19–12 | 53 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 7–11 | 16–15 | 64 | 81 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 15–16 | 83 | 92 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–13 | 12–19 | 109 | 146 |
| Notre Dame | 4–14 | 13–18 | 93 | 121 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 11–20 | 159 | 217 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 11–20 | 167 | 210 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 1 Duke 76, No. 19 North Carolina 61
Boston College 77, Notre Dame 69
Clemson 79, Georgia Tech 76
No. 24 Louisville 92, Miami 89
Florida State 92, SMU 78
Stanford 85, N.C. State 84
Wake Forest 80, California 73
Pittsburgh 71, Syracuse 69, OT
END OF REGULAR SEASON
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday through Saturday
UNC schedule
| Date | Month/day | Opponent/event (final ranks) |
|---|---|---|
| October | Exhibitions | |
| 9 | 7 p.m. Friday | vs. USC in Greensboro |
| 18 | 5 p.m. Sunday | vs. Indiana in Indianapolis |
| 27 | Tuesday | vs. Charlotte |
| November | Regular season | |
| 2 | Monday | vs. Western Carolina |
| 6 | Friday | vs. Wofford |
| 10 | Tuesday | vs. Wyoming |
| 13 | Friday | vs. Georgia |
| 20 | Friday | vs. Marshall |
| 23 | Monday | vs. Monmouth |
| 27 | Friday | Dick Vitale Invitational vs. West Virginia in Charlotte |
| December | ||
| 1 | Tuesday | ACC/SEC Challenge vs. No. 13 Arkansas |
| 6 | Sunday | vs. Butler |
| 12 | Saturday | at Georgetown |
| 15 | Tuesday | Tobacco Road Classic vs. N.C. State in Greensboro |
| 19 | 2:30 Saturday, CBS | CBS Sports Classic vs. Kentucky in New York |
| 21 | Monday | vs. The Citadel |
| January | ||
| 2 | Saturday | at Boston College |
| 30 | Saturday | Nashville Hoops Showdown vs. No. 5 Illinois in Nashville, Tenn. |
| February | ||
| March | ||
| 6 | Saturday | vs. No. 4 Duke |
| 9–13 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament in Greensboro |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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