By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina still is trending as a No. 5 seed in the NCAA men’s tournament, but its resume got a little better since the Tuesday victory over Clemson.
Florida State’s 75–74 win at Pittsburgh on Wednesday night moved its NET ranking up to 74, which upgraded UNC’s 79–66 home victory on Dec. 30 from Quad 3 to Quad 2, making the Heels (24–6, 12–5 ACC) 5–0 in Quad 2 games.
Carolina has a NET ranking of 24 but a WAB ranking of 17, suggesting the Tar Heels could be close to earning a No. 4 seed.
No. 17 UNC (24–6, 12–5 ACC) can obviously substantially boost its resume with a win at 6:30 Saturday at No. 1 Duke (28–2, 16–1; 1 NET ranking, 2 WAB ranking), and a loss shouldn’t do any damage.
The NCAA tournament committee uses the NET rankings and WAB as two of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings and WAB will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 6–8): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 8–0): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 5–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
The consensus of 73 projections listed on Friday on Bracket Matrix has UNC as the third-highest No. 5 seed, with two (Sports Daily Media Network and Cardinal Dave) projecting UNC as a No. 4 seed and eight as a No. 6 seed.
Here is a sampling of prominent projections, all published on Friday:
—Patrick Stevens (on oviesandgiglio.com), ESPN’s Joe Lunardi and Chris Dobbertean at Blogging the Bracket each have UNC as a No. 5 seed playing early-round games in San Diego. Stevens and Dobbertean place UNC in the South Regional (Houston), and Lunardi has the Heels in the West Regional (San Jose).
—Erick Smith, Paul Myerberg and Eddie Timanus of USA Today also have UNC as a No. 5 seed in the West Regional, but playing early-round games in Greenville, S.C.
—Jerry Palm projects Carolina to be a No. 5 seed in the South Regional, playing early-round games in Tampa.
—Mike DeCourcy of Fox Sports also has UNC as the 5 seed in the South (no location for early-round games predicted).
—CBS Sports has UNC as the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Regional (no location for early-round games predicted).
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UNC’s NCAA résumé
NET ranking: 24
WAB (wins above bubble) rank: 21 (5.37)
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days)
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 113
Average NET loss: 35
NET strength of schedule: 31
KenPom: 29
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
Bart Torvik T-Rank: 27
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Saturday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 166 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 21 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 252 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 342 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 136 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 143 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 90 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 303 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 139 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 29 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 267 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 62 | 2 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 37 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 67 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 61 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 94 | 3 | Win |
| J24 | At Virginia | 12 | 1 | Win |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 169 | 3 | Win |
| F2 | Syracuse | 86 | 3 | Win |
| F7 | Duke | 1 | 1 | Win |
| F10 | At Miami | 32 | 1 | Loss |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 104 | 3 | Win |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 36 | 1 | Loss |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 86 | 1 | Win |
| F23 | Louisville | 16 | 1 | Win |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 55 | 2 | Win |
| M3 | Clemson | 34 | 2 | Win |
| M7 | At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| M12 | (N) Clemson | 34 | 1 | Loss |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* | WAB* |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Duke | 17–1 | 29–2 | 1 | 2 |
| No. 10 Virginia | 15–3 | 27–4 | 13 | 11 |
| Miami | 13–5 | 24–7 | 32 | 28 |
| No. 19 North Carolina | 12–6 | 24–7 | 23 | 19 |
| Clemson | 12–6 | 22–9 | 36 | 33 |
| No. 24 Louisville | 11–7 | 22–9 | 14 | 25 |
| N.C. State | 10–8 | 19–12 | 35 | 45 |
| Florida State | 10–8 | 17–14 | 69 | 74 |
| California | 9–9 | 21–10 | 65 | 49 |
| Stanford | 9–9 | 20–11 | 59 | 51 |
| SMU | 8–10 | 19–12 | 39 | 50 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 19–12 | 53 | 52 |
| Wake Forest | 7–11 | 16–15 | 64 | 81 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 15–16 | 83 | 92 |
| Pittsburgh | 5–13 | 12–19 | 109 | 146 |
| Notre Dame | 4–14 | 13–18 | 93 | 121 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 11–20 | 159 | 217 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–16 | 11–20 | 167 | 210 |
* — Through Sunday games
Saturday’s results
No. 1 Duke 76, No. 19 North Carolina 61
Boston College 77, Notre Dame 69
Clemson 79, Georgia Tech 76
No. 24 Louisville 92, Miami 89
Florida State 92, SMU 78
Stanford 85, N.C. State 84
Wake Forest 80, California 73
Pittsburgh 71, Syracuse 69, OT
END OF REGULAR SEASON
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday through Saturday
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center | Charlotte
Tuesday’s first round
No. 15 Pittsburgh 64, No. 10 Stanford 63
No. 11 SMU 86, No. 14 Syracuse 69
No. 13 Wake Forest 95, No. 12 Virginia Tech 89, OT
Wednesday’s second round
No. 7 N.C. State 98, Pittsburgh 88
No. 6 (No. 24 ranked) Louisville 62, SMU 58
No. 8 Florida State 95, No. 9 California 89
No. 5 Clemson 71, Wake Forest 62
Thursday’s quarterfinals
No. 2 (No. 10 ranked) Virginia 81, N.C. State 74
No. 3 Miami 78, Louisville 73
No. 1 (No. 1 ranked) Duke 80, Florida State 79
Clemson 80, No. 4 (No. 19 ranked) North Carolina 79
Friday’s semifinals
Virginia 84, Miami 62
Duke 73, Clemson 61
Saturday’s championship
Duke 74, Virginia 70
| Date | Month/day | Scores | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 17 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 11 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | W, 91–69 | vs. Notre Dame | 15–4, 3–3 |
| 24 | Saturday | W, 85–80 | at No. 9 Virginia | 16–4, 4–3 |
| 31 | Saturday | W, 91–75 | at Georgia Tech | 17–4, 5–3 |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | W, 87–77 | vs. Syracuse | 18–4, 6–3 |
| 7 | Saturday | W, 71–68 | vs. No. 1 Duke | 19–4, 7–3 |
| 10 | Tuesday | L, 75–66 | at No. 25 Miami | 19–5, 7–4 |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 79–65 | vs. Pittsburgh | 20–5, 8–4 |
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 82–58 | at N.C. State | 20–6, 8–5 |
| 21 | Saturday | W, 77–64 | at Syracuse | 21–6, 9–5 |
| 23 | Monday | W, 77–74 | vs. Louisville | 22–6, 10–5 |
| 28 | Saturday | W, 89–82 | vs. Virginia Tech | 23–6, 11–5 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | W, 67–63 | vs. Clemson | 24–6, 12–5 |
| 7 | Saturday | L, 76–61 | at No. 1 Duke | 24–7, 12–6 |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte | |
| 12 | Thursday | L, 80–79 | Quarterfinals: vs. Clemson | 24–8 |
| NCAA tournament | ||||
| 19 | Thursday | L, 82–78, OT | First round: vs. VCU in Greenville, S.C. | 24–9 |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
