By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina has gone from missing the postseason in Bill Belichick’s first season to a likely bowl team, with several projections for a December trip to Charlotte and a potential matchup with Penn State.
The Tar Heels (4–2, 2–1 ACC) are two victories away from bowl eligibility after consecutive road wins over then-No. 25 Pittsburgh and rival Duke. Their 24–20 comeback victory at Duke last Saturday returned the Victory Bell to Chapel Hill and strengthened their postseason outlook, with media outlets projecting UNC to go bowling in Charlotte, The Bronx or Annapolis, Md.
All of those projections came before Thursday’s ACC announcement that a league team will face a Sun Belt Conference team on Dec. 16 in Puerto Rico at the San Juan Bowl.
The most intriguing possibility comes from CBS Sports’ Brad Crawford and Sports Illustrated’s Bryan Fischer, with both projecting Carolina to face Penn State in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl on Dec. 26 at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, a 3:30 game that airs on ABC.
It would match Belichick’s Tar Heels and a Penn State program struggling through an unexpectedly difficult season.
Subscribe to read Tar Heel Tribune ad-free
Subscribe for a cleaner, smoother reading experience without the flashing banners, slow-loading elements, or those especially annoying pop‑up ads that interrupt the flow of the story. You’ll also get the first version of each story emailed to you. The only ads you’ll see are static, non-intrusive ads for UNC‑related books, and there are none currently on the site.
More on Tar Heels
— UNC has 8 out, 6 questionable; Syracuse has 2 QBs out, 1 questionable
— Belichick says moving on from big Duke win tougher, Syracuse better than record
— What is Belichickian? He’s never used the term
— Tar Heels in NFL: Maye not satisfied after third straight big game; Williams scores TD
The Nittany Lions are 3–4 overall and 0–4 in the Big Ten after losing 21–18 at Michigan last Saturday. They entered the season with considerably higher expectations, but their remaining schedule offers opportunities to recover and reach bowl eligibility.
On Oct. 12, 2025, Penn State fired James Franklin, who subsequently took the Virginia Tech job, and hired former Iowa State coach Matt Campbell on Dec. 5.
Going to the Charlotte bowl would present the possibility of Belichick getting doused with mayonnaise should the Tar Heels win.
Two other forecasters also favor Charlotte, although they see a different opponent.
ESPN’s Mark Schlabach and College Football News‘ Pete Fiutak project Carolina to face No. 24 Northwestern.
The Wildcats (5–1) are one victory from bowl eligibility after rallying to beat Michigan State 24–21 last weekend. The Wildcats entered the week ranked No. 25 in the AP poll.
ESPN’s other bowl forecaster, Kyle Bonagura, sees Carolina meeting with Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl at Yankee Stadium in New York, scheduled for noon Dec. 26 on ABC.
Wisconsin (4–2) is coming off a 17–7 loss at No. 9 UCLA.
Athlon Sports’ Steven Lassan offers another possibility, projecting the Tar Heels to play Navy in the Military Bowl at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, the Midshipmen’s home stadium, in Annapolis on Dec. 28.
This season, the Tar Heels matched their 2025 victory total before the end of October, with the wins over Pitt and Duke offsetting losses to Clemson and Notre Dame. That put Carolina in position to secure a postseason berth without needing a late-season scramble.
The Tar Heels have six regular-season games remaining, beginning with back-to-back 7:30 p.m. Saturday home games against teams on opposite ends of the ACC standings: this weekend against last-place Syracuse (2–4, 0–4) and Oct. 31 against league-leading No. 1 Miami (6–0, 4–0).
Two more victories would make Carolina bowl-eligible, although its eventual destination would depend on its final record, the number of qualifying ACC teams, conference bowl arrangements and selections elsewhere in the postseason.
UNC bowl projections
| Media outlet | Forecaster | Bowl | Opponent |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports Illustrated | Bryan Fischer | Duke’s Mayo | Penn State |
| CBS Sports | Brad Crawford | Duke’s Mayo | Penn State |
| ESPN | Mark Schlabach | Duke’s Mayo | Northwestern |
| College Football News | Pete Fiutak | Duke’s Mayo | Northwestern |
| ESPN | Kyle Bonagura | Pinstripe | Wisconsin |
| Athlon Sports | Steve Lassan | Military | Navy |
The Duke’s Mayo Bowl is at 5:30 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 26 on ESPN; the Pinstripe Bowl is at 2 p.m. Saturday, Dec. 26, on ESPN; the Military Bowl is at 5 p.m. Monday, Dec. 28, on The CW. None of those conflict with basketball games. Both teams are on break starting on Dec. 21, with the women’s team’s next game after that on Dec. 28 and the men’s team’s next game after that on Dec. 30.
| Month/ date | Score/ time | Opponent (current ranking) | Record/TV |
|---|---|---|---|
| August | |||
| 29 | W, 15–10 | vs.TCU in Dublin | 1–0 |
| September | |||
| 12 | W, 35–3 | vs. ETSU | 2–0 |
| 19 | L, 28–20 | at Clemson | 2–1, 0–1 ACC |
| October | |||
| 3 | L, 37–26 | vs. No. 4 Notre Dame | 2–2 |
| 10 | W, 21–18 | at Pittsburgh | 3–2, 1–1 |
| 17 | W, 24–20 | at Duke | 4–2, 2–1 |
| 24 | 7:30 | vs. Syracuse | ACCN |
| 31 | 7:30 | vs. No. 1 Miami | ESPN or ABC |
| November | |||
| 7 | Noon | at UConn | CBSSN |
| 14 | TBA | vs. Louisville | TBA |
| 21 | TBA | at Virginia | TBA |
| 28 | TBA | vs. N.C. State | TBA |
| December | |||
| 5 | noon, ABC | ACC championship game in Charlotte | ESPN |
Photo via Smith Hardy
1 Comment