By R.L. Bynum
With Carolina’s small margin for error, winning all six games heading into Saturday’s senior day clash in the Smith Center against No. 2 Duke was always going to be crucial to making the NCAA men’s tournament field.
Heading into Tuesday’s 7 p.m. game (ESPNU) at Virginia Tech, most projections suggest that the season-high five-game win streak for UNC (19–11, 12–6 ACC) against weak ACC competition hasn’t been convincing enough.
The Hokies (13–16, 8–10) have a NET ranking of 155, making this UNC’s final Quad 3 game of the regular season, and another game that the Tar Heels can’t afford to lose.
Carolina moved up three spots to 42nd in the NET after the 92–73 Quad 4 win over Miami (6–23, 2–16; 223rd in the NET) but slipped back to 43rd following Monday’s results. That’s possibly because Wake Forest (20–10, 12–7) slipped four spots to 72nd after the Deacons’ 93–60 loss Monday at No. 2 Duke.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams. NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–10; 1 game left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 5–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–1; 1 game left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
After the Miami win, UNC appeared on 11.1% of projections on Bracket Matrix, but that is up to 18.2% (19 of 104) in the Monday update on that website.
Bill Bender of The Sporting News, in a Tuesday projection, has Carolina as the second team on his “Last four in” list, projecting the Tar Heels as the No. 11 seed.
Most other Tuesday updates still have UNC on “first four out” lists, with Jerry Palm of CBS putting UNC second, Joe Lunardi of ESPN and Kerry Miller of Bleacher Report having the Heels third and USA Today putting Carolina fourth on that list.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 43
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 51 on Feb. 10
Average opponent NET: 98
Average NET win: 139
Average NET loss: 28
NET strength of schedule: 44
KenPom: 39
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 30
KPI: 53
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 46
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Monday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 174 | 4 | Win |
| At Kansas | 20 | 1 | Loss |
| American | 238 | 4 | Win |
| At Hawai’i | 220 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Dayton | 68 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Auburn | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| Alabama | 6 | 1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 111 | 3 | Win |
| La Salle | 232 | 4 | Win |
| (N) Florida | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) UCLA | 26 | 1 | Win |
| Campbell | 210 | 4 | Win |
| At Louisville | 24 | 1 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 103 | 2 | Win |
| SMU | 41 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 138 | 3 | Win |
| California | 126 | 3 | Win |
| Stanford | 83 | 3 | Loss |
| At Wake Forest | 72 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston College | 200 | 4 | Win |
| At Pittsburgh | 659 | 1 | Loss |
| At Duke | 2 | 1 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh | 59 | 2 | Win |
| At Clemson | 21 | 1 | Loss |
| At Syracuse | 142 | 2 | Win |
| N.C. State | 138 | 3 | Win |
| Virginia | 102 | 3 | Win |
| At Florida State | 89 | 2 | Win |
| Miami | 223 | 4 | Win |
| At Virginia Tech | 155 | 3 | |
| Duke | 2 | 1 |
ACC standings
| Team | League | Overall | NET |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 2 Duke | 18–1 | 27–3 | 2 |
| No. 11 Clemson | 16–2 | 24–5 | 21 |
| No. 14 Louisville | 16–2 | 23–6 | 24 |
| SMU | 12–6 | 21–8 | 41 |
| North Carolina | 12–6 | 19–11 | 43 |
| Wake Forest | 12–7 | 20–10 | 72 |
| Stanford | 11–7 | 19–10 | 83 |
| Georgia Tech | 9–9 | 15–14 | 111 |
| Virginia Tech | 8–10 | 13–16 | 155 |
| Florida State | 7–11 | 16–13 | 89 |
| Pittsburgh | 7–11 | 16–13 | 59 |
| Virginia | 7–11 | 14–15 | 102 |
| California | 6–12 | 13–16 | 126 |
| Notre Dame | 6–12 | 12–17 | 103 |
| Syracuse | 6–12 | 12–17 | 142 |
| Boston College | 4–14 | 12–17 | 200 |
| N.C. State | 4–14 | 11–18 | 138 |
| Miami | 2–16 | 6–23 | 223 |
Saturday’s results
North Carolina 92, Miami 73
No. 11 Clemson 71, Virginia 68
Virginia Tech 101, Syracuse 95, OT
Georgia Tech 87, N.C. State 62
Stanford 73, SMU 68
Wake Forest 74, Notre Dame 71
No. 14 Louisville 79, Pittsburgh 68
No. 2 Duke 100, Florida State 65
California 82, Boston College 71
Monday’s result
No. 2 Duke 93, Wake Forest 60
Tuesday’s games
North Carolina at Virginia Tech, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Miami at Georgia Tech, 7 p.m, ACCN
Syracuse at SMU, 9 p.m., ESPNU
Florida State at Virginia, 9 p.m., ACCN
Wednesday’s games
No. 11 Clemson at Boston College, 7 p.m., ESPNU
Pittsburgh at N.C. State, 7 p.m., ACCN
California at No. 14 Louisville, 9 p.m., ACCN
Stanford at Notre Dame, 9 p.m., ESPNU
Saturday’s games
N.C. State at Miami, noon, The CW
Stanford at No. 14 Louisville, 2 p.m., ESPNU
Georgia Tech at Wake Forest, 2:15, The CW
SMU at Florida State, 4 p.m., ESPNU
California at Notre Dame, 4 p.m., ACCN
Virginia Tech at Clemson, 6 p.m., ESPNU
Boston College at Pitt, 6 p.m., ACCN
No. 2 Duke at North Carolina, 6:30, ESPN
Virginia at Syracuse, 8 p.m., ACCN
| Date | Month/day | Time/ score | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 15 | Tuesday | W, 84–76 | at No. 19 Memphis | Exhibition |
| 27 | Sunday | W, 127–63 | vs. Johnson C. Smith | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 4 | Monday | W, 90–76 | vs. Elon | 1–0 |
| 8 | Friday | L, 92–89 | at No. 17 Kansas | 1–1 |
| 15 | Friday | W, 107–55 | vs. American | 2–1 |
| 22 | Friday | W, 85–69 | at Hawai’i | 3–1 |
| Maui Invitational | ||||
| 25 | Monday | W, 92–90 | Dayton | 4–1 |
| 26 | Tuesday | L, 85–72 | No. 1 Auburn | 4–2 |
| 27 | Wednesday | L, 94–91, OT | No. 8 Michigan State | 4–3 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 4 | Wednesday | L, 94–79 | vs. No. 6 Alabama | 4–4 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Saturday | W, 68–65 | vs. Georgia Tech | 5–4, 1–0 ACC |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 93–67 | vs. LaSalle | 6–4 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 90–84 | No. 3 Florida | 6–5 |
| CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden | ||||
| 21 | Saturday | W, 76–74 | UCLA | 7–5 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Sunday | W, 97–81 | vs. Campbell | 8–5 |
| January | ||||
| 1 | Wednesday | L, 83–70 | at Louisville | 8–6, 1–1 |
| 4 | Saturday | W, 74–73 | at Notre Dame | 9–6, 2–1 |
| 7 | Tuesday | W, 82–67 | vs. SMU | 10–6, 3–1 |
| 11 | Saturday | W, 63–61 | at N.C. State | 11–6, 4–1 |
| 15 | Wednesday | W, 79–53 | vs. California | 12–6, 5–1 |
| 18 | Saturday | L, 72–71 | vs. Stanford | 12–7, 5–2 |
| 21 | Tuesday | L, 67–66 | at Wake Forest | 12–8, 5–3 |
| 25 | Saturday | W, 102–96, OT | vs. Boston College | 13–8, 6–3 |
| 28 | Tuesday | L, 73–65 | at Pittsburgh | 13–9, 6–4 |
| February | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | L, 87–70 | at No. 2 Duke | 13–10, 6–5 |
| 8 | Saturday | W, 67–66 | vs. Pittsburgh | 14–10, 7–5 |
| 10 | Monday | L, 85–65 | at No. 13 Clemson | 14–11, 7–6 |
| 15 | Saturday | W, 88–82 | at Syracuse | 15–11, 8–6 |
| 19 | Wednesday | W, 97–73 | vs. N.C. State | 16–11, 9–6 |
| 22 | Saturday | W, 81–66 | vs. Virginia | 17–11, 10–6 |
| 24 | Monday | W, 96–85 | at Florida State | 18–11, 11–6 |
| March | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | W, 92–73 | vs. Miami | 19–11, 12–6 |
| 4 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Virginia Tech | ESPNU |
| 8 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 2 Duke | ESPN |
| 11– 15 | Tues.–Sat. | ACC tournament Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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