By R.L. Bynum
CHARLOTTE — After a narrow loss to a sure No. 1 seed, North Carolina can only wait until the NCAA tournament selection show at 6 p.m. Sunday (CBS) to see if the Tar Heels have done enough to make the field.
In the meantime, the Tar Heels will anxiously watch four league tournaments, hoping that the favorites Memphis, VCU, and UC San Diego prevail over potential “bid stealers.” If UNC makes the field, it’s clear that a trip to the First Four in Dayton, Ohio, where there are games on Tuesday and Wednesday, is ahead.
“I don’t really care where we are at,” RJ Davis said. “This team is a tournament team, and we’ll pull that together. We can compete with the best of the best, and we’ve proven that these past couple of weeks. So, wait for the Selection Show on Sunday and see where we’re gonna be at.”
Guard Seth Trimble was one of many players who said that the Tar Heels should make the field.
‘We’re a tournament team,” he said. “I believe it. The whole team believes it.”
There was minimal damage from UNC’s 74–71 loss to Duke in Friday’s ACC tournament semifinals in the NET rankings, with the Heels only dropping one spot to 36th. However, there would have been little doubt about UNC getting into the field if it had pulled the upset.
“I believe we definitely have the heart, just the players and capability of being in a tournament and making a good run,” Ven-Allen Lubin said.
David Worlock, the NCAA’s director of media coordination, tweeted Saturday morning that 34 of 37 at-large teams have already been selected, and that at least five of those will be automatic qualifiers.
In the Saturday update on Bracket Matrix, Carolina went from appearing on 64.6% (73 of 113) of the projections before the Duke game to 36.4% (43 of 118) after the game.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi had UNC as the third team in his “Last four in” list Friday morning, the last team in late Friday night, the first team out in his Saturday morning update and has the Heels as the second team out behind Indiana in his Saturday afternoon update.
Joe Rexrode of The Athletic of Joe Rexrode has UNC as the second team out and Jerry Palm of CBS has Carolina as the third team out, both in Saturday updates.
On3’s James Fletcher III has UNC as the last team in, as a No. 12 seed, meeting Boise State in the First Four.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–12): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 8–0): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–1): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
In his Saturday noon update, Bart Torvik dropped UNC from the fourth team on his “Last four byes” list to the second team out of the field behind Texas.
There are a few other games to watch involving teams that have to win league tournaments to make the field. If they do, it would reduce the number of NCAA at-large berths.
In a battle of bubble teams at Saturday’s Mountain West tournament championship game, No. 2-seed Colorado State (25–9; 50th in the NET) blew out No. 5-seed Boise State (23–10, 43rd in NET) 69–56. Boise State was listed as the fourth team on Lunardi’s “Last four in” and Colorado State wasn’t listed.
Here’s a list of the remaining relevant games, and the preferred outcome from a UNC perspective:
Big West tournament championship game, 9:30 Saturday, ESPN2
No. 1-seed UC San Diego (27–4; 35th) needs to beat No. 2-seed UC Irvine (27–5; 60th), which only makes the field with a victory.
Atlantic 10 tournament championship game, 1 p.m. Sunday, CBS
No. 1-seed VCU (27–6; 31st), which eliminated one potential bid stealer in Saturday’s semifinals by beating No. 4 Loyola-Chicago (21–11; 107th) 62–55, needs to also beat the winner of the second semifinal between No. 2 George Mason (24–7; 73rd) and No. 6 Saint Joseph’s (22–11; 74th) in the championship game. Only VCU is projected to make the field.
American Athletic tournament championship, 3:15 Sunday, ESPN
No. 1-seed Memphis (28–5; 48th) eliminated a potential bid stealer with its 78–77 semifinal victory Saturday over No. 4-seed Tulane (17–14; 152nd) and UNC needs the Tigers to also beat No. 3-seed UAB (21–11; 110th), 66–56 winners over North Texas in the other semifinal, in the 3:15 Sunday championship game (ESPN). UAB isn’t projected to make the field.
The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.
UNC’s NCAA resume
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 36
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 51 on Feb. 10
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 135
Average NET loss: 23
NET strength of schedule: 42
KenPom: 33
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 26
KPI: 55
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 36
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Friday’s games)
| Opponent | NET ranking | Quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elon | 183 | 4 | Win |
| At Kansas | 20 | 1 | Loss |
| American | 226 | 4 | Win |
| At Hawai’i | 223 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Dayton | 67 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Auburn | 2 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| Alabama | 5 | 1 | Loss |
| Georgia Tech | 108 | 3 | Win |
| La Salle | 214 | 4 | Win |
| (N) Florida | 4 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) UCLA | 26 | 1 | Win |
| Campbell | 222 | 4 | Win |
| At Louisville | 23 | 1 | Loss |
| At Notre Dame | 103 | 3 | Win |
| SMU | 46 | 2 | Win |
| At N.C. State | 132 | 2 | Win |
| California | 124 | 3 | Win |
| Stanford | 81 | 3 | Loss |
| At Wake Forest | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| Boston College | 204 | 4 | Win |
| At Pittsburgh | 62 | 1 | Loss |
| At Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| Pittsburgh | 62 | 2 | Win |
| At Clemson | 22 | 1 | Loss |
| At Syracuse | 133 | 2 | Win |
| N.C. State | 132 | 3 | Win |
| Virginia | 109 | 3 | Win |
| At Florida State | 90 | 2 | Win |
| Miami | 225 | 4 | Win |
| At Virginia Tech | 167 | 3 | Win |
| Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| (N) Notre Dame | 103 | 3 | Win |
| (N) Wake Forest | 68 | 2 | Win |
| (N) Duke | 1 | 1 | Loss |
| Date | Month/day | Scores/ times | Opponent/event (current ranks) | Record /TV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 15 | Tuesday | W, 84–76 | at No. 16 Memphis | Exhibition |
| 27 | Sunday | W, 127–63 | vs. Johnson C. Smith | Exhibition |
| November | ||||
| 4 | Monday | W, 90–76 | vs. Elon | 1–0 |
| 8 | Friday | L, 92–89 | at Kansas | 1–1 |
| 15 | Friday | W, 107–55 | vs. American | 2–1 |
| 22 | Friday | W, 85–69 | at Hawai’i | 3–1 |
| Maui Invitational | ||||
| 25 | Monday | W, 92–90 | Dayton | 4–1 |
| 26 | Tuesday | L, 85–72 | No. 3 Auburn | 4–2 |
| 27 | Wednesday | L, 94–91, OT | No. 7 Michigan State | 4–3 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 4 | Wednesday | L, 94–79 | vs. No. 5 Alabama | 4–4 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Saturday | W, 68–65 | vs. Georgia Tech | 5–4, 1–0 ACC |
| 14 | Saturday | W, 93–67 | vs. LaSalle | 6–4 |
| Jumpman Invitational in Charlotte | ||||
| 17 | Tuesday | L, 90–84 | No. 4 Florida | 6–5 |
| CBS Sports Classic at Madison Square Garden | ||||
| 21 | Saturday | W, 76–74 | UCLA | 7–5 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 29 | Sunday | W, 97–81 | vs. Campbell | 8–5 |
| January | ||||
| 1 | Wednesday | L, 83–70 | at No. 13 Louisville | 8–6, 1–1 |
| 4 | Saturday | W, 74–73 | at Notre Dame | 9–6, 2–1 |
| 7 | Tuesday | W, 82–67 | vs. SMU | 10–6, 3–1 |
| 11 | Saturday | W, 63–61 | at N.C. State | 11–6, 4–1 |
| 15 | Wednesday | W, 79–53 | vs. California | 12–6, 5–1 |
| 18 | Saturday | L, 72–71 | vs. Stanford | 12–7, 5–2 |
| 21 | Tuesday | L, 67–66 | at Wake Forest | 12–8, 5–3 |
| 25 | Saturday | W, 102–96, OT | vs. Boston College | 13–8, 6–3 |
| 28 | Tuesday | L, 73–65 | at Pittsburgh | 13–9, 6–4 |
| February | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | L, 87–70 | at No. 1 Duke | 13–10, 6–5 |
| 8 | Saturday | W, 67–66 | vs. Pittsburgh | 14–10, 7–5 |
| 10 | Monday | L, 85–65 | at No. 10 Clemson | 14–11, 7–6 |
| 15 | Saturday | W, 88–82 | at Syracuse | 15–11, 8–6 |
| 19 | Wednesday | W, 97–73 | vs. N.C. State | 16–11, 9–6 |
| 22 | Saturday | W, 81–66 | vs. Virginia | 17–11, 10–6 |
| 24 | Monday | W, 96–85 | at Florida State | 18–11, 11–6 |
| March | ||||
| 1 | Saturday | W, 92–73 | vs. Miami | 19–11, 12–6 |
| 4 | Tuesday | W, 91–59 | at Virginia Tech | 20–11, 13–6 |
| 8 | Saturday | L, 82–69 | vs. No. 1 Duke | 20–12, 13–7 |
| ACC tournament Spectrum Center, Charlotte | ||||
| 12 | Wednesday | W, 76–56 | 2nd-round: vs. Notre Dame | 21–12 |
| 13 | Thursday | W, 68–59 | Quarterfinal: vs. Wake Forest | 22–12 |
| 14 | Friday | L, 72–71 | Semifinal: vs. No. 1 Duke | 22–13 |
| NCAA tournament | ||||
| 18–19 | Tues.-Wed. | First Four Dayton, Ohio | truTV | |
| 20–21 | Thurs.-Fri | First round | ||
| 22–23 | Sat.-Sun | Second round | ||
| 27–28 | Thurs.-Fri | Sweet 16 | ||
| 29–30 | Sat.-Sun | Elite Eight | ||
| 5, 7 | Sat., Mon. | Final Four San Antonio |
First- and second-round sites: Raleigh; Lexington, Ky.; Providence, RI; Seattle; Wichita, Kansas; Cleveland; Denver; and Milwaukee. Regional sites: East in Newark, N.J., West in San Francisco, South in Atlanta and Midwest in Indianapolis.
Photo by Smith Hardy
tarheeltribune.com 