NCAA projections suggest UNC won’t make field; would team accept NIT bid?

By R.L. Bynum

The projections for North Carolina have only become less favorable since Friday’s ACC tournament semifinal loss to No. 1 Duke.

If the NCAA men’s tournament selection committee agrees, winning eight of their last 10 games — with the only losses against the Blue Devils (31–3; 1st in NET) — won’t be enough for the Tar Heels (22–13) to make the field. It could be a rare year where a team 36th in the NET, which is where UNC stands, misses the field.

This evening, the question could become whether or not the players favor continuing the season in the 32-team NIT, which would likely mean three home games. UNC declined an NIT bid when the Tar Heels missed the NCAA tournament in 2023, but the program could have a different mindset this time around.

The NCAA Selection Show is at 6 p.m. on CBS. The NIT will announce its field on its X (formerly Twitter) and Instagram accounts.

First-round NIT games are Tuesday and Wednesday, with the second round Saturday and Sunday and the quarterfinals March 25–26. The semifinals are on Tuesday, April 1, and the championship game is on Thursday, April 3, at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

Carolina made it to the championship game before losing to Dayton 79–68 when it last played in the NIT in 2010 as a No. 4 seed. If it chose to participate this season, UNC would likely be a No. 1 NIT seed, with SMU (23–10; 46th), Pittsburgh (17–15; 61st), Wake Forest (21–11; 69th) and Stanford (20–13; 81st) also possible NIT teams.

UNC won the NIT title in 1971 behind MVP Bill Chamberlain and Bobby Jones, when the tournament was much more prestigious. Teams had to win their conference titles to make the 25-team NCAA tournament and only 16 teams made the NIT.

Ultimately, Carolina’s 1–12 record in Quad 1 games was damning, but other numbers are also damaging for the Tar Heels:
— 0–5 against the ACC teams that are locks for the NCAA (Duke, Clemson and Louisville)
— 2–7 against the top seven ACC teams (wins over SMU and Wake Forest)
— 0–8 against teams in the top 20 of the NET
— 1–10 vs. teams in the NET’s top 40
— 1–10 against the expected NCAA at-large field

On Bracket Matrix, Carolina went from appearing on 64.6% (73 of 113) of the projections before the Duke game to 36.4% (43 of 118) after the game to 24.3% Sunday (27 of 111).

UNC is the second team out on Sunday morning update of Joe Rexrode at The Athletic. Bart Torvik, Joe Lunardi at ESPN, CBS’ Jerry Palm and USA Today all have UNC as the third team out.


Quadrant 1 (UNC is 1–12): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 80): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 7–1): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower


It didn’t help when Mountain West regular-season champion New Mexico lost in the league’s tournament semifinals. That means the league will get at least two bids after Colorado State (25–9; 47th in the NET) blew out No. 5-seed Boise State (23–10, 44th in NET) 69–56 in Saturday’s championship. Palm has the Broncos as the last team in.

If UNC is to have any shot at getting a berth, favorites VCU (28–6; 31st) and Memphis (28–5; 50th) needed to win their league tournament championship games Sunday and both did.

No. 1-seed VCU held off No. 2-seed George Mason (26–8; 68th) 68–63 in the Atlantic 10 championship, then No. 1-seed Memphis (29–5; 50th) beat No. 3-seed UAB 84–72 in the American Athletic championship game.

The NCAA tournament committee, which UNC athletics director Bubba Cunningham chairs, uses the NET rankings as one of its metrics to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.

Cunningham must leave the room when Carolina’s fate is discussed.


UNC’s NCAA resume

(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 36
Highest NET: 25 on Dec. 2
Lowest NET: 51 on Feb. 10
Average opponent NET: 93
Average NET win: 135
Average NET loss: 23
NET strength of schedule: 42
KenPom: 33
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 25
KPI: 54
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 36


UNC quad schedule breakdown

(Through Saturday’s games)

OpponentNET
ranking
Quad
designation
Outcome
Elon1844Win
At Kansas201Loss
American2264Win
At Hawai’i2233Win
(N) Dayton672Win
(N) Auburn21Loss
(N) Michigan State111Loss
Alabama61Loss
Georgia Tech1093Win
La Salle2144Win
(N) Florida41Loss
(N) UCLA271Win
Campbell2224Win
At Louisville231Loss
At Notre Dame1033Win
SMU462Win
At N.C. State1322Win
California1253Win
Stanford813Loss
At Wake Forest691Loss
Boston College2024Win
At Pittsburgh611Loss
At Duke11Loss
Pittsburgh612Win
At Clemson221Loss
At Syracuse1332Win
N.C. State1323Win
Virginia1103Win
At Florida State902Win
Miami2254Win
At Virginia Tech1673Win
Duke11Loss
(N) Notre Dame 1033Win
(N) Wake Forest 692Win
(N) Duke11Loss
Quad designations are according to the current NET rankings. The only designation that matters is the designation on Selection Sunday.

DateMonth/dayScoresOpponent/event
(current ranks)
Record
October
15TuesdayW, 84–76at No. 16 MemphisExhibition
27SundayW, 127–63vs. Johnson C. SmithExhibition
November
4MondayW, 90–76vs. Elon1–0
8FridayL, 92–89at Kansas1–1
15FridayW, 107–55vs. American2–1
22FridayW, 85–69at Hawai’i3–1
Maui Invitational
25MondayW, 92–90Dayton4–1
26TuesdayL, 85–72No. 3 Auburn4–2
27WednesdayL, 94–91, OTNo. 7 Michigan State4–3
DecemberACC/SEC
Men’s Challenge
4WednesdayL, 94–79vs. No. 5 Alabama4–4
—————————
7SaturdayW, 68–65vs. Georgia Tech5–4,
1–0 ACC
14SaturdayW, 93–67vs. LaSalle6–4
Jumpman Invitational
in Charlotte
17TuesdayL, 90–84No. 4 Florida6–5
CBS Sports Classic
at Madison Square Garden
21SaturdayW, 76–74UCLA7–5
—————————
29SundayW, 97–81vs. Campbell8–5
January
1WednesdayL, 83–70at No. 13 Louisville8–6, 1–1
4SaturdayW, 74–73at Notre Dame9–6, 2–1
7TuesdayW, 82–67vs. SMU10–6, 3–1
11SaturdayW, 63–61at N.C. State11–6, 4–1
15WednesdayW, 79–53vs. California12–6, 5–1
18SaturdayL, 72–71vs. Stanford12–7, 5–2
21TuesdayL, 67–66at Wake Forest12–8, 5–3
25SaturdayW, 102–96, OTvs. Boston College13–8, 6–3
28TuesdayL, 73–65at Pittsburgh13–9, 6–4
February
1SaturdayL, 87–70at No. 1 Duke13–10, 6–5
8SaturdayW, 67–66vs. Pittsburgh14–10, 7–5
10MondayL, 85–65at No. 10 Clemson14–11, 7–6
15SaturdayW, 88–82at Syracuse15–11, 8–6
19WednesdayW, 97–73vs. N.C. State16–11, 9–6
22SaturdayW, 81–66vs. Virginia17–11, 10–6
24MondayW, 96–85at Florida State18–11, 11–6
March
1SaturdayW, 92–73vs. Miami19–11, 12–6
4TuesdayW, 91–59at Virginia Tech20–11, 13–6
8SaturdayL, 82–69vs. No. 1 Duke20–12, 13–7
ACC tournament
Spectrum Center, Charlotte
12WednesdayW, 76–562nd-round:
vs. Notre Dame
21–12
13ThursdayW, 68–59Quarterfinal:
vs. Wake Forest
22–12
14FridayL, 72–71Semifinal:
vs. No. 1 Duke
22–13
NCAA tournament
18 or 19Tuesday
or Wednesday
9 p.m.vs. San Diego State
First Four in Dayton, Ohio
truTV

Photo by Smith Hardy

Leave a Reply