By R.L. Bynum
North Carolina, as expected, has fallen in bracket projections after losing both games in the Bay Area last weekend.
The consensus of the 84 NCAA tournament projections on Bracket Matrix made through Tuesday has the Tar Heels as the lowest No. 6 seed.
With Selection Sunday less than two months away (March 15), Carolina’s NET ranking of 30 (down one after Tuesday’s game) translates as a high No. 8 seed. But that’s only one of the metrics that the NCAA tournament uses to determine who makes the field and how to seed teams.
NET rankings will fluctuate throughout the season, and the only quad designation that matters is where your opponents stand on Selection Sunday, not where they ranked when the game was played.
NCAA quadrant system
Quadrant 1 (UNC is 3–4; 8 games left): Home games against teams with a NET ranking of 30 or better, neutral-site games against teams ranked 50 or better, and road games against teams ranked 75 or better
Quadrant 2 (UNC is 1–0; 2 games left): Home 31–75, neutral 51–100, road 76–135
Quadrant 3 (UNC is 4–0; 3 games left): Home 76–160, neutral 101–200, road 135–240
Quadrant 4 (UNC is 6–0; no games left): Home 161 or lower, neutral 201 or lower, road 241 or lower
More on Tar Heels
— Notre Dame at No. 22 UNC: TV info, stats, scouting Irish, keys to game, comparisons and notes
— Roy Williams passionately urges UNC to renovate Smith Center, cites Dean Smith’s wishes
— Davis stresses accountability as UNC tries to rebound from defensive struggles
— Wilson gets alarmingly few shots down stretch in last four games
— UNC plummets in AP Top 25 men’s poll
— UNC moves up in NET rankings after Quad 1 loss at Cal
— ESPN says ‘technical issue’ led fans to miss large chunk of UNC-Cal game
— Trimble says it’s just ‘bump in road,’ and it’s about manning up
Before UNC (14–4, 2–3 ACC) lost three of their last four games, there was hope that the Tar Heels might play their first- and second-round games in Greenville, S.C., but it’s looking like they’ll play much farther away from Chapel Hill.
Here are six projections that were released on Tuesday:
— ESPN’s Joe Lunardi, who had Carolina as a No. 4 seed earlier this month, has UNC heading to Oklahoma City for first- and second-round games in the Midwest Regional as a No. 7 seed, facing the winner of the First Four game between USC (13–4; NET ranking of 48) and New Mexico (13–4; 40).
— The Athletic’s Joe Rexrode projects UNC as a No. 6 seed in the South Regional, facing the winner of the First Four game between San Diego State (12–4; 47) and Santa Clara (15–5; 45) in Portland, Ore.
— At CBS Sports, David Cobb and Jacob Fetner have Carolina as a No. 8 seed in the West Regional.
— At Blogging the Bracket, Chris Dobbertean has UNC as a No. 7 seed in the East Regional, playing in St. Louis against the winner of the First Four game between Seton Hall (14–5; 44) and New Mexico
— On NCAA.com, Andy Katz projects the Tar Heels as a No. 6 seed in the South Regional and the 24th overall seed.
— Kerry Miller at The Bleacher Report sees UNC as a No. 7 seed in the West Regional, facing No. 10 Texas A&M (14–4; 44) in Portland, Ore.
UNC has 11 regular-season games (and the ACC tournament) ahead with a chance to turn its NCAA résumé around after doing significant damage in the last two weeks.
The Tar Heels have eight chances to improve a 3–4 Quad 1 record, but five will be on the road, and they will be heavy underdogs in the next two:
— Saturday at No. 14 Virginia (16–2, 5–1; 13)
— Feb. 7 vs. No. 5 Duke (17–1, 6–0; 2)
Additional Quad 1 opportunities are:
— Feb. 10 at Miami (15–4, 4–2; 35)
— Feb. 17 at N.C. State (13–6, 4–2; 28)
— Feb. 21 at Syracuse (12–6, 3–2; 74)
— Feb. 23 vs. No. 23 Louisville (13–5, 3–3; 15)
— March 3 vs. No. 18 Clemson (16–4, 6–1; 27)
— March 7 at Duke
UNC’s NCAA résumé
(Via bracketologists.com)
NET ranking: 30
High NET: 13 (2 days)
Low NET: 30 (4 days; current)
Average opponent NET: 135
Average NET win: 161
Average NET loss: 42
NET strength of schedule: 61
KenPom: 35
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI): 37
Bart Torvick T-Rank: 34
UNC quad schedule breakdown
(Through Tuesday games)
| Date | Opponent | NET ranking | Current quad designation | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N3 | Central Arkansas | 222 | 4 | Win |
| N7 | Kansas | 18 | 1 | Win |
| N11 | Radford | 268 | 4 | Win |
| N14 | N.C. Central | 341 | 4 | Win |
| N18 | Navy | 195 | 4 | Win |
| N25 | (N) St. Bonaventure | 147 | 3 | Win |
| N27 | (N) Michigan State | 11 | 1 | Loss |
| D2 | At Kentucky | 28 | 1 | Win |
| D7 | Georgetown | 123 | 3 | Win |
| D13 | USC Upstate | 269 | 4 | Win |
| D16 | ETSU | 131 | 3 | Win |
| D20 | (N) Ohio State | 36 | 1 | Win |
| D22 | East Carolina | 295 | 4 | Win |
| D30 | Florida State | 116 | 3 | Win |
| J3 | At SMU | 31 | 1 | Loss |
| J10 | Wake Forest | 66 | 2 | Win |
| J14 | At Stanford | 68 | 1 | Loss |
| J17 | At California | 59 | 1 | Loss |
| J21 | Notre Dame | 81 | 3 | |
| J24 | At Virginia | 13 | 1 | |
| J31 | At Georgia Tech | 143 | 3 | |
| F2 | Syracuse | 74 | 2 | |
| F7 | Duke | 2 | 1 | |
| F10 | At Miami | 35 | 1 | |
| F14 | Pittsburgh | 118 | 3 | |
| F17 | At N.C. State | 28 | 1 | |
| F21 | At Syracuse | 74 | 1 | |
| F23 | Louisville | 15 | 1 | |
| F28 | Virginia Tech | 54 | 2 | |
| M3 | Clemson | 27 | 1 | |
| M7 | At Duke | 2 | 1 |
| Team | League | Overall | NET* |
|---|---|---|---|
| No. 5 Duke | 6–0 | 17–1 | 2 |
| No. 18 Clemson | 6–1 | 16–4 | 27 |
| No. 14 Virginia | 5–1 | 16–2 | 15 |
| Miami | 4–2 | 15–4 | 35 |
| N.C. State | 4–2 | 13–6 | 28 |
| Syracuse | 3–2 | 12–6 | 74 |
| Stanford | 3–3 | 14–5 | 68 |
| SMU | 3–3 | 14–5 | 31 |
| Virginia Tech | 3–3 | 14–5 | 54 |
| No. 23 Louisville | 3–3 | 13–5 | 16 |
| No. 22 North Carolina | 2–3 | 14–4 | 30 |
| California | 2–4 | 14–5 | 59 |
| Wake Forest | 2–4 | 11–8 | 66 |
| Georgia Tech | 2–4 | 11–8 | 143 |
| Notre Dame | 1–4 | 10–8 | 81 |
| Boston College | 1–4 | 8–10 | 162 |
| Pittsburgh | 1–4 | 8–10 | 118 |
| Florida State | 1–5 | 8–11 | 116 |
* — Through Tuesday games
Tuesday’s results
Florida State 65, Miami 63
N.C. State 80, No. 18 Clemson 76, OT
SMU 91, Wake Forest 79
Wednesday’s games
Notre Dame at No. 22 North Carolina, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Pittsburgh at Boston College, 7 p.m., ACC Network
Virginia Tech at Syracuse, 9 p.m., ACC Network
Saturday’s games
No. 18 Clemson at Georgia Tech, noon, ACC Network
N.C. State at Pittsburgh, noon, ESPN2
No. 22 North Carolina at No. 14 Virginia, 2 p.m., ESPN
Miami at Syracuse, 2 p.m., ACC Network
Virginia Tech at No. 23 Louisville, 3:30, The CW
Florida State at SMU, 4 p.m., ACC Network
Wake Forest at No. 5 Duke, 5:45, The CW
Boston College at Notre Dame, 6 p.m., ACC Network
California at Stanford, 8 p.m., ACC Network
Monday’s game
No. 23 Louisville at No. 5 Duke, 7 p.m., ESPN
Tuesday’s games
Wake Forest at Pittsburgh, 6 p.m., ACC Network
No. 14 Virginia at Notre Dame, 7 p.m., ESPN2
Syracuse at N.C. State, 7 p.m., ESPN U
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech, 8 p.m., ACC Network
| Date | Month/day | Time | Opponent/event (current ranks) | TV/ record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October | ||||
| 24 | Friday | L, 78–76 | vs. No. 13 BYU in SLC | Exhib. |
| 29 | Wednesday | W, 95–53 | vs. Winston-Salem St. | Exhib. |
| November | ||||
| 3 | Monday | W, 94–54 | vs. Central Arkansas | 1–0 |
| 7 | Friday | W, 87–74 | vs. No. 19 Kansas | 2–0 |
| 11 | Tuesday | W, 89–74 | vs. Radford | 3–0 |
| 14 | Friday | W, 97–53 | vs. N.C. Central | 4–0 |
| 18 | Tuesday | W, 73–61 | vs. Navy | 5–0 |
| Fort Myers Tip-Off | ||||
| 25 | Tuesday | W, 85–70 | vs. St. Bonaventure | 6–0 |
| 27 | Thursday | L, 74–58 | vs. No. 10 Michigan State | 6–1 |
| December | ACC/SEC Men’s Challenge | |||
| 2 | Tuesday | W, 67–64 | at Kentucky | 7–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 7 | Sunday | W, 81–61 | vs. Georgetown | 8–1 |
| 13 | Saturday | W, 80–62 | vs. USC Upstate | 9–1 |
| 16 | Tuesday | W, 77–58 | vs. ETSU | 10–1 |
| CBS Sports Classic in Atlanta | ||||
| 20 | Saturday | W, 71–70 | vs. Ohio State | 11–1 |
| ————————— | ||||
| 22 | Monday | W, 99–51 | vs. East Carolina | 12–1 |
| 30 | Tuesday | W, 79–66 | vs. Florida State | 13–1, 1–0 ACC |
| January | ||||
| 3 | Saturday | L, 97–83 | at SMU | 13–2, 1–1 |
| 10 | Saturday | W, 87–84 | vs. Wake Forest | 14–2, 2–1 |
| 14 | Wednesday | L, 95–90 | at Stanford | 14–3, 2–2 |
| 17 | Saturday | L, 84–78 | at California | 14–4, 2–3 |
| 21 | Wednesday | 7 p.m. | vs. Notre Dame | ESPN2 |
| 24 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at No. 14 Virginia | ESPN |
| 31 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | at Georgia Tech | ACCN |
| February | ||||
| 2 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. Syracuse | ESPN |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | vs. No. 5 Duke | ESPN |
| 10 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at Miami | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 14 | Saturday | 2 p.m. | vs. Pittsburgh | ESPN |
| 17 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | at N.C. State | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 21 | Saturday | 1 p.m. | at Syracuse | ABC |
| 23 | Monday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 23 Louisville | ESPN |
| 28 | Saturday | 6:30 or 8:30 | vs. Virginia Tech | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| March | ||||
| 3 | Tuesday | 7 p.m. | vs. No. 18 Clemson | ESPN or ESPN2 |
| 7 | Saturday | 6:30 | at No. 5 Duke | ESPN |
| 10–14 | Tues.-Sat. | ACC tournament | Spectrum Center, Charlotte |
Photo courtesy of UNC Athletics
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